Cincinnati Reds 2008 Preview

The Cincinnati Reds come into the 2008 year with a core of young players unsurpassed in previous years. The Reds have four players in the top 50 prospects in baseball. Two of those are hard throwing right handed pitchers. Pitching, which has been the weakness of Reds teams in the past, is finally on the front burner with the organization. They have made good trades, landing Harang, Arroyo, and Edison Volquez. While the Reds haven't performed well in the past few years, the young nucleus is there to propel this team into the playoffs for years to come.

The infield:
The Reds are strong on the infield. First baseman Joey Votto will likely takeover for veteran Scott Hatteberg at some point in the year. Votto, who is known for his bat, came up last year and caught fire through September. Brandon Phillips, who should have won the Gold Glove last year, had a 30-30 year. Alex Gonzalez, and Jeff Keppinger will split time at shortstop, with Gonzalez being a defensive wizard, and Keppinger being a solid .300 hitter. Edwin Encarnacion will be the third baseman this year. Edwin struggled early, but found his swing after a stint in the minors. Will this finally be the year that Edwin can live up to his potential? The infield seems to be solid, but with two spots up for grabs, it looks like it could be an exciting Spring.

The outfield:
The Reds outfield it lacking last year's greatest story in Josh Hamilton. He was traded to the Rangers for Edison Volquez. Still, the outfield is very strong. With power hitting, and not much else outfielder Adam Dunn in left, Ken Griffey Jr. in right, and the center field spot up for grabs, the outfield is the strength of this team. Jay Bruce, who was rated by Baseball America as the number one prospect in all of baseball, will likely assume the reins in center at some point this year. He is competing this Spring with Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, Chris Dickerson, and Corey Patterson. Griffey could be gone after the season, as he has a 16 million dollar option that's not likely to be exercised the the team. Dunn could also be gone. He makes over ten million this year, in the final year of a deal he signed a few years ago. The outfield will be the core of the offense.

The starters:

The starting pitchers are lead by ace Aaron Harang. Bronson Arroyo, the man the Reds got for Wily Mo Pena, is the number two pitcher. He relies on lots of slow pitches, and typically is a 200+ inning a year guy. After that, the spots are up for grabs. In the race are Matt Belisle, Homer Bailey, Josh Fogg, Jeremy Affeldt, Edison Volquez, and Johnny Cueto. Cueto is the only pitcher in competition for a spot to never pitch a MLB inning. Bailey got pushed around a little it last year, but rebounded after coming back from injury. Volquez has looked very impressive this spring, with a sharp fastball, and two more MLB ready pitches, including an extremly impressive changeup. Fogg and Affeldt were brought in to buy time for the youngsters to make the rotation, but Affeldt likely has a future in the bullpen after he is done starting.

The bullpen:

The bullpen is alot better than last year. The Reds brought in veteran closer Francisco Cordero, in the largest deal ever given to a closer. David Weathers, the closer last year, has been the Reds most consistent pitcher for the last two years. Rookie Josh Roenkie has come to camp with a fastball reaching the high 90s. If he doesn't make the team out of Spring training, it's likely he will at some point this year. Bill Bray, Gary Majewski, Todd Coffey, Mike Stanton(sigh), and others will fight to get the remaining spots after Weathers and Cordero. While the bullpen may have more talent, it may take awhile to gel into a consistant stopper.

Overview:

While the Reds will not likely make the playoffs this year, contention is not out of the question. They have the talent to compete in a very weak NL Central. If some of the young players step up, and play to the potential that they have, it is entirely possible that they could be fighting for a playoff spot come September. Look for an upward trend in the next four years for this team, because that is about the timeframe they have to win. Griffey and Dunn may be gone after this season, the youngsters will quickly become expensive, and the veterans will get old. It's up to the organization to seize the talent that we have now, and make this a time to never forget.

To Swing, Or Not To Swing - An Analysis of Dusty Baker

Dusty Baker, the longtime Major League manager, and current manager of the Cincinnati Reds has baseball theories that are catagorized by many in baseball as illogical. He likes hitters swinging early in the count, and doesn't believe that on base percentage is as valuable to a team as hitting for power is. A man who formerly managed the likes of Barry Bonds and Derrick Lee doesn't like the idea of taking lots of walks if you are a middle of the order hitter. Today, I'm using Sabermetrics to analyze the theory that hitting early in the count is better for a hitter.

Take for instance hitting early in the count. Stats say that swinging at the first pitch you will get a hit .341 percent of the time. Hitting deeper in the count, such as a 1-1 count you hit only .328. Even if you get ahead in the count, such as 3-1 you only stand to get a hit .341 percent of the time. Though at 3-1, the OBP of a player jumps to a staggering .681. With the Baker mindset, it's not likely that a player would find himself in a 3-1 situation too often. Baker doesn't like a player "clogging up bases." Instead, he likes the fast players to be the ones to get on base, and the middle of the order hitters to drive them in.

In this analysis, the point has been made that swinging early, at a good pitch gives you a good chance for a hit. Waiting until later in the count can cause a lower chance at a hit, mostly due to the fact that you don't know where a count will go. Such as if the count goes to 0-1 or 0-2. In those situations, it becomes increasingly unlikely that you will get a hit. His ways are geared so that power hitters get a chance to hit. While some managers like to wear down a pitcher, Baker views taking pitches as restricting his hitters. So while his views may be different, his results speak for themselves.

So while Baker's philosophy isn't widely viewed as good, he takes an intresting, and informed view on baseball. He doesn't view convention as the best way, but more as a way to mediocrity. While he could take the high road, like many managers today, he's defied conventional wisdom, and beaten the odds. While many managers go by the book, and use that as an excuse when they lose, Baker has no fallback point. He has nothing to backup his wisdom. It's the less informed of the sports world that moves so quicly to judge somebody for being different, but it will be the same crowd that jumps to his side when he wins.

Winning is the cure of all questioning, so if Baker proves once and for all that his ways are atleast as good as the conventional ones, he will have proved the naysayers wrong. Until that point, the baseball world will continue to question him - right or wrong. The only way to fix that is to win, so that's exactly what he plans to do.

Go Reds!

Heart

Why do people love baseball? I love baseball because I can watch players that give their all runs circles around those who don't. Those who don't care sometimes rely on skills alone, or the passion they usto have. They still get paid, some of them still play extremly well. The difference is that I don't care about those who don't care for the game, or the ones who are too good for practice. I care about the ones who care enough to give the fans what they paid for, effort.
Pete Rose, the all time hit king is admired by some for his all out effort. You can count me in that bunch. He may have bet on baseball. Everybody knows he did. He did that though because he knew so much about the game. This was the sport he grew up around. This was the sport he cared about. Though he is one of the only, if not the only player who bet on baseball that I know of, he didn't cheat in the way that matters most to me... effort.
Chicks dig the long ball. We have all heard that saying. Well, I dig the hustle. I love the players who don't care about what people think about them. I want someone who will risk injury and give that 110%. Is that too much to ask? Those that do care will be forever admired by baseball fans like me. Baseball fans who are great players, but who didn't care will be loved by millions. I guess those players would rather be loved by millions. But, could you imagine if those great players did care? How great they could be.
I will leave you with one final thought. The talented players get by with the talent that god gave them, but the true warriors get by with what god gave us all, heart.

Ken Griffey Jr., a Reds Fan's Perspective

Why do people always rip Ken Griffey Jr.? I'll tell you why. He let Reds fans down. He let them fall the the lowest of lows, because he isn't the player we thought he was. He came in to Cincinnati, seemingly the savior of the franchise. He gave us a "hometown discount," and the blogs were exploding. The Reds were seemingly the National league's team to beat.
Well, that was 7 years ago. In 1999, the Reds had a season that reshaped people's vision of the Reds. They won over 90 games, and made it to a one game playoff with the Mets. Though they lost, it was believed that minor improvments would be all this team would need to become a World Series contender. That however, was far from the truth.
The Reds went out and traded for Ken Griffey Jr., who was quite possibly the most gifted player in baseball history. With his perfect swing, and amazingly strong legs, he seemed unstoppable. With Griffey, the Reds were sure to be unstoppable. The greatest player in baseball, and a team that was a contender even before he arrived-things were shaping up very well for the Reds.
That season Junior amassed 40 homers, 118 RBIs, but set a career low with a .942 OPS. For those who don't know that is on base percentage plus slugging percentage. Even with that production though, the Reds struggled, and didn't even come close to the playoffs.
Since 2000, Junior has suffered injuries in every season. This season, playing in 144 games was a high since his 145 in 2000. From 2002 to 2004, Junior only managed to play in 206 games. He also only hit 41 homeruns during that time. Compare that to his years in Seattle, where he managed to hit 41 homeruns in six different seasons, including two 56 homerun seasons.
What does Junior bring to the Reds? At $12,500,000 he is no bargain. He is the highest paid Cincinnati Red. Though his numbers havn't always shown in the stat sheet, they have shown at the box office. When he arrived in Cincinnati the attendence numbers hit the roof. Now that mistique has worn away, and so has Junior. In a season where he was relativly healthy, and playing in Great American smallpark, he still only amassed 30 homeruns.
Have we seen the end of Ken Griffey Jr. in Cincy? In my opinion yes. He is no longer the player he usto be, or we hoped he would be. Though he has helped this franchise, his value is no longer higher than that of Jay Bruce. So I plead with you. Reds nation pleads to you. Please Wayne Krivsky, trade Junior to a contender, so he won't go down as the greatest player to not have a World Series ring.

Joe Finally Made it All The Way Home

Joe Nuxhall was the greatest man to ever put on a Reds uniform. He took the field with pride, and understood the significance of his actions. He took responsibility both on the field and off. Unlike today's baseball player, he took time out of his life to help those less fortunite. You didn't have to know Joe Nuxhall. If you walked up to him at the supermarket he would say hi. Off the field he considered himself just another Reds fan. Why is it that today, we have come to expect less out of our public figures?
Joe Nuxhall was not a man to bask in any glory. Yes, he was the youngest player in MLB history. He did something that nobody will probably ever do again, he started a professional baseball game at fifteen years old. He took the field as a man, and left it a legend. He never let his status get to him, which is what made him so unique. Never again will such a man grace this earth.
Joe Nuxhall gave us Reds fans hope. When we didn't have the best team on the field, we could still turn on Joe. He would tell it like it is, not following the chain of broadcasters that would tell you what the team wanted to tell you. He was proof that no matter who you were, you are no better than anybody else. He gave us hope for better days, and a better life. That is why he was so special.
Joe will forever be a fixture in our hearts. He shares commen bonds with all baseball fans, and the public in general.. He shares in our love for the game. Joe is a man who is unreplacable. Thank you Joe, for all that you have done for us. Thank you from that bottom of my, and every other Reds fan's hearts. We will never forget you.