To Swing, Or Not To Swing - An Analysis of Dusty Baker

Dusty Baker, the longtime Major League manager, and current manager of the Cincinnati Reds has baseball theories that are catagorized by many in baseball as illogical. He likes hitters swinging early in the count, and doesn't believe that on base percentage is as valuable to a team as hitting for power is. A man who formerly managed the likes of Barry Bonds and Derrick Lee doesn't like the idea of taking lots of walks if you are a middle of the order hitter. Today, I'm using Sabermetrics to analyze the theory that hitting early in the count is better for a hitter.

Take for instance hitting early in the count. Stats say that swinging at the first pitch you will get a hit .341 percent of the time. Hitting deeper in the count, such as a 1-1 count you hit only .328. Even if you get ahead in the count, such as 3-1 you only stand to get a hit .341 percent of the time. Though at 3-1, the OBP of a player jumps to a staggering .681. With the Baker mindset, it's not likely that a player would find himself in a 3-1 situation too often. Baker doesn't like a player "clogging up bases." Instead, he likes the fast players to be the ones to get on base, and the middle of the order hitters to drive them in.

In this analysis, the point has been made that swinging early, at a good pitch gives you a good chance for a hit. Waiting until later in the count can cause a lower chance at a hit, mostly due to the fact that you don't know where a count will go. Such as if the count goes to 0-1 or 0-2. In those situations, it becomes increasingly unlikely that you will get a hit. His ways are geared so that power hitters get a chance to hit. While some managers like to wear down a pitcher, Baker views taking pitches as restricting his hitters. So while his views may be different, his results speak for themselves.

So while Baker's philosophy isn't widely viewed as good, he takes an intresting, and informed view on baseball. He doesn't view convention as the best way, but more as a way to mediocrity. While he could take the high road, like many managers today, he's defied conventional wisdom, and beaten the odds. While many managers go by the book, and use that as an excuse when they lose, Baker has no fallback point. He has nothing to backup his wisdom. It's the less informed of the sports world that moves so quicly to judge somebody for being different, but it will be the same crowd that jumps to his side when he wins.

Winning is the cure of all questioning, so if Baker proves once and for all that his ways are atleast as good as the conventional ones, he will have proved the naysayers wrong. Until that point, the baseball world will continue to question him - right or wrong. The only way to fix that is to win, so that's exactly what he plans to do.

Go Reds!